The best sales forecast method will vary according to how you manage information, how much past data you have access to, and what special factors drive your business. The best way to explain how to create a sales forecast is to run through an example. She also plans to just serve coffee and lunches. This is your estimated sales numbers that will help inform your full forecast. Ideally, all of these tables will be filled during a given lunch hour, so she estimates 24 sit-down lunches on an average day.
Magda also plans to offer to-go lunches, so she can serve more customers. This will be about double the sit down capacity, so 48 per day. Magda knows that not every customer will purchase beverages with every meal. She estimates lunch beverages as. Some customers will also be coming in just to have coffee outside of that one-hour lunch period.
So, she calculates the coffee capacity as a maximum of one customer every two minutes, or 30 customers per hour. This expected customer flow, with a maximum of 30 coffees is expected to occur during the 8 to 9 a. She also estimates some coffees at lunch, based on three coffees for every 10 lunches. You can see the results here, as a quick worksheet for calculations. How does Magda know these numbers? Or perhaps she has a partner, spouse, friend, or even a consultant who can make educated guesses.
And, by the way, there is a lesson here about estimating and educated guesses — Magda calculates Always round your educated guesses. Exact numbers give a false sense of certainty. To do this, just multiply each line of units by the total number of workdays per month. So that means the base case is about 1, lunches, 1, beverages, and 2, coffees in a given month. Before she takes the next step, Magda adds up some numbers to see whether she should just abandon her idea.
To really see if this is sustainable, she could quickly pull together some rough costs to factor into her sales. Maybe figure on a few thousand in rent and utilities, a few thousand in salaries and inventory, and then decide if she should continue planning. And that, by the way, in a single paragraph, is a break-even analysis.
You need to make some educated guesses around how quickly your restaurant will grow, seasonality and broader market shifts. Notes and major health warnings Users use the restaurant business revenue projection template to generate a restaurant sales forecast at their own risk. We make no warranty or representation as to its accuracy and we are covered by the terms of our legal disclaimer, which you are deemed to have read.
This is an example of a five year projection for a restaurant that you might use. It is purely illustrative. This is not intended to reflect general standards or targets for any particular company or sector. If you do spot a mistake in the restaurant financials template, please let us know and we will do our best to try fix it.
Last modified July 16th, by Michael Brown. You May Also Like. Always round your educated guesses. Exact numbers give a false sense of certainty.
She then estimates monthly capacity. You saw in Illustration that she estimates 22 workdays per month, and multiplies coffees, lunches, and beverages, to generate the estimated unit numbers for a baseline sample month. So that means the base case is about 1, lunches, about 1, beverages, and about 2, coffees in a month.
Before she takes the next step, Magda adds up some numbers to see whether she should just abandon her idea. She could figure on a few thousand in rent, a few thousand in salaries, and then decide that she should continue planning, from the quick view, like it could be a viable business And that, by the way, in a single paragraph, is a break-even analysis.
With those rough numbers established as capacity, and some logic for what drives sales, and how the new business might gear up, Magda then does a quick calculation of how she might realistically expect sales to go, compared to capacity, during her first year. Notice that Magda is being realistic. Important: these are all just rough numbers, for general calculations.
There is nothing exact about these estimates. She does need to have some sense of what to realistically expect. They are also called COGS, or cost of goods sold, or unit costs. Just as with the sales categories, forecast your direct costs in categories that match your chart of accounts. So, with her unit sales estimates already there, Magda needs only add estimated direct costs per unit to finish the forecast.
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